1999年05月27日
いや大したことないよ
「ある村での雨乞い祈祷師のシステム」の話を聞いたことがある。本当の話かは知らない。
文明があまり発達していないその村では、雨乞いで本当に雨が降ると信じられている。祈祷師にもいろいろランクがあって、日照り続きで人々が少し困りはじめてきた頃には、まずは一番の下っ端が出て来て何日か祈る。それで雨が降らなければ、その日照りはその下っ端の手には負えないと言うことだ。次にランクが高い祈祷師が出てきて、また何日か祈る。それでも降らなければ、また次のランクのが出てきて... と雨が降るまで繰り返す。
どうせいつかは降るから、そうなれば「やはりランクが違うだけある。格下の祈祷師には止められなかった日照りを止めて見せた」......と言うことになる。下剋上は絶対に起こらない。気候にもよるが、祈祷師は２０人もいれば十分だろう。
この話がとても間抜けだと言うことは誰でも分かるだろうけど、たまに似たようなことが実生活(特にエンジニアリングの世界)でも起こることがある。
問題が起こる。どこが原因なのかは分からない。関係の深い人たちが集まって、話し合う。とりあえず考えられる原因を、可能性の高いものからテストしていく。多分これだろう... 違う。これはどうだろう... 違う。じゃあ、これは... 違う。
そこへ、別の人が通りかかる。なんか面白そうなことやってるな、なにしてるんだ？みんなが説明する。こういう問題が見つかったんだ。ここが原因じゃないかと思ってテストしたけど違った。ここもテストしたけど違ったし、このテストも問題なかったからそこでもない。
それを聞いて、言ってみる。じゃあ、このテストはしたの？
いや、まだだ。やってみよう... おお！ここだ！すごいな！今まで１時間以上かかって解決しなかったのに、３分で解決しちゃったじゃないか！普通はこんなところに問題はないんだが、よく見つけたなあ！
その人が最初から参加していたら、みんなと同じ道をたどっただろう。より可能性のありそうな選択肢が１つずつ消されていって、たまたま次に「当たり」が出る時にその人が通りかかっただけだ。それまでの結果を簡潔に説明してもらったんだから、実際にテストした人たちに必要だった余計な細かいことを気にする必要もないし、次の案を出すのはそんなに難しいわけでもない。
だから全然すごいわけではないのだけれど、みんなは気づいてないのかな？それとも、解決して嬉しいから、気づいていて言ってるのかな？どちらにしても、みんな嬉しそうだし、褒められて気分が悪いわけでもない。そのまま放っておくことにしよう。
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